U.S. Birth Rates vs Death Rates (2014–2023)
Over the past decade, the U.S. crude birth rate has steadily declined from 12.5 to 11.0 per 1,000 people, while the death rate has risen from 8.2 to 9.1. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a sharp spike in deaths, pushing the death rate above 10 for the first time in modern history. The narrowing gap between births and deaths has significant implications for population growth and the age structure of the country.
Data
| # | Year | Birth Rate (per 1,000) | Death Rate (per 1,000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2014 | 12.5 | 8.2 |
| 2 | 2015 | 12.4 | 8.3 |
| 3 | 2016 | 12.2 | 8.3 |
| 4 | 2017 | 11.8 | 8.5 |
| 5 | 2018 | 11.6 | 8.6 |
| 6 | 2019 | 11.4 | 8.7 |
| 7 | 2020 | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| 8 | 2021 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| 9 | 2022 | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| 10 | 2023 | 11.0 | 9.1 |
Note: The U.S. Is Having Fewer Babies Than It Needs to Replace Itself
Below Replacement Level
The U.S. fertility rate has hovered around 1.6 or 1.7 children per woman for years, which is below the replacement level of about 2.1. Replacement level is the number of children a population needs to keep its size steady without immigration. Because the country is below that line, births alone are not enough to keep the population growing. This is not unique to the United States. Most wealthy countries face the same math, and many are even further below it.
Births vs. Deaths Over Time
For most of the 20th century, births far outnumbered deaths in the U.S., so natural increase (births minus deaths) was strongly positive. That surplus has shrunk. The birth rate has fallen while the death rate has stayed fairly flat, and in some recent years the margin between them has gotten very thin. Natural increase is still positive nationally, but it is a much smaller engine of growth than it used to be, and in some states deaths now outnumber births.
An Aging Population
Fewer babies plus longer lifespans equals an older population. The huge baby boomer generation is now moving into retirement, and the cohorts behind it are smaller. That shifts the balance of the whole country: more older adults who need health care and retirement support, and fewer young workers entering the labor force to pay for it. The dependency ratio, the number of older people relative to working-age people, is climbing and will keep climbing for decades.
Why Birth Rates Fell
The reasons people give for having fewer children are familiar: the cost of raising kids, expensive housing, the difficulty of balancing work and childcare, and people choosing to marry later or not at all. Higher education and careers often come first now. Surveys also show many people want fewer children than their parents had, and some want none. It is a mix of economics and changing preferences rather than any single cause.
What It Means Going Forward
With natural increase shrinking, immigration has become the main way the U.S. population keeps growing, and states differ a lot in how much they depend on it. Some states still have healthy natural increase because of younger age structures, while others already see more deaths than births. Over time, without changes, the U.S. population would eventually start to shrink on its own, the way it already has in parts of Europe and in Japan.
Fun Facts
- Replacement level is about 2.1 children per woman, and the U.S. has been below it for over a decade.
- In several states, especially in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, deaths already outnumber births in most years.
- The U.S. birth rate fell sharply during the 2008 recession and never really recovered.
- Baby boomers are the largest generation in American history, and their aging is driving the national trend.
- Immigration has replaced natural increase as the biggest driver of U.S. population growth.
- The median age of the U.S. population has risen steadily and now sits in the high 30s.
- Utah and the Dakotas typically post some of the highest birth rates in the country, well above the national average.